Crude at $100 a barrel makes good headlines but ignores basic economics. Why oil prices are in for a 50 percent drop.

If you haven't got the message that something disturbing is happening in the oil world, stop by my office. On my desk, I have a pile of books a foot high with titles like Out of Gas, The End of Oil, and Twilight in the Desert. The authors range from geologists to journalists to policy wonks, and they all tell the same story.

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