Weak dollar and forecast regarding decline in weekly inventory perk up prices

Crude oil prices rose on Tuesday, 19 August, 2008 at Nymex as the dollar weakened against its rivals. Crude oil rose more than $1 a barrel as a weakening dollar prompted investors to purchase commodities as an inflation hedge. Oil also gained on forecasts a government report tomorrow will show a fourth weekly decline in U.S. gasoline stockpiles. Also providing support to crude price was the ongoing conflict between Russia and Georgia.

Crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for September delivery closed at $114.53/barrel (higher by 1.66 or 1.5%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Last week, crude prices ended lower by 1.2%. Before that crude lost $15.92 (11%) in July, 2008, the biggest ever in dollars. Prices are 59% higher than a year ago. Prices reached a high of $147 on 11 July but have dropped 21.5% since then.

At the currency markets on Tuesday, the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 76.74, down from 77.070. It climbed as high as 77.41 earlier. The dollar weakened in the face of weak economic data.

In a monthly oil report issued last week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that oil demand has been "badly hurt" this summer by the slowing economy and high oil prices. Transport and industrial fuels declined the most, sending USA's total oil demand down by 3.8%, or 0.8 million barrels per day in the first seven months of the year.

Crude prices had gained 38% in the second quarter of this year. It was the biggest quarterly increase in nine years. It ended June 2008 higher by 9.9%. For the year, crude is up by 16.5% till date.

Brent crude oil for October settlement rose $1.31 (1.2%) o close at $113.25 a barrel.

Against this background, September reformulated gasoline added 4.9 cents to close at $2.8639 a gallon, and September heating oil climbed 3.9 cents to finish at $3.1237 a gallon.

- Natural gas in New York advanced as lower prices for the heating and industrial fuel attracted buyers and on forecasts Tropical Storm Fay could enter the Gulf of Mexico, threatening production. Natural gas for September delivery rose 8.8 cents (1.1%) to settle at $7.976 per million British thermal units.

At the MCX, crude oil for August delivery closed at Rs 4,989/barrel, higher by Rs 37 (0.74%) against previous day's close. Natural gas for August delivery closed at Rs 344.4/mmbtu, lower by Rs 3.9/mmbtu (1.1%).

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